Week 5 nfl confidence pool picks

Week 5 nfl confidence pool picks
last week.

We touched on it in the Tampa Bay @ LA Rams blurb last week, but its important to remain neutral about a teams chances of covering when picking vs the spread, so as not to subconsciously assume the.

Psychologically, its just that bit easier for us to imagine offenses running wild and scoring touchdowns unanswered, than it is to imagine good teams not showing up against bad teams, as happened last week.

Most importantly, we must remember that the points spread is set to equalize the two teams.

In theory, it should lead to something akin to a 50-50 pick.

If we shake ourselves out of the bad habits regarding underdogs, we get more success.

Thats why each week Upset Watch shows you the true stats about who covers, and when.

Well tell you what the average is for underdog and favorite covers each week, both historically and over the current season.

Well also tell you if those teams tend to be at home, on the road, against a big or small spread, and combinations of all of the above.

So read on for this weeks methodology.

Methodology: Historical trends: Week 5 is one of the low points in the early season for underdogs.

Traditionally, we see less upsets in this week than any other week than most (6.2 average but why?

Well, one reason could be quite simple - bye weeks.

This means that in 2013, 15, 16 and 17 there were only 14 games played in this week.

This week, there are 15, as there was in 2014 and last year.
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